Управление рисками в цепях поставок в период пандемии COVID-19

Пустохина Ирина Валерьевна

к.э.н., доцент кафедры предпринимательства и логистики

Российский экономический университет им. Г. В. Плеханова

Москва, Россия

Supply Chain Risk Management in the time of COVID-19

Pustokhina Irina Valeryevna

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of

Entrepreneurship and Logistics,

Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

Moscow, Russia

Новый вирус короны (COVID-19) нанес удар по экономике, финансовым рынкам, сообществам, путешествиям и торговле. Это также привело к беспрецедентным сбоям в работе глобальных цепей поставок. Компании должны реагировать быстро и уверенно, чтобы сформулировать и реализовать краткосрочный тактический план, который снизит риски для здоровья человека и защитит функционирующий механизм глобальных цепей поставок. В статье рассматриваются стратегии снижения рисков в цепях поставок.

Ключевые слова: эпидемия, поставщик, прозрачность, защита, смягчение последствий, гибкость, логистика.

The novel corona virus (COVID-19) has brought disruption to economies, financial markets, communities, travel, and commerce. It has also brought unprecedented disruption to global supply chains. Companies must respond quickly and confidently to formulate and implement a short-term tactical plan that will reduce risks to human health and protect the functioning mechanism of global supply chains. The paper dwells on the risk reduction strategies in supply chains.

Key words: epidemic, supplier, transparency, protection, mitigation, flexibility, logistics.

The World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus epidemic COVID-19 a pandemic that has a huge impact on the lives of people, their families, business and the community as a whole. The response of the international community continues to evolve. Governments impose restrictive measures on the movement of people. In these circumstances, organizations face significant challenges that they must respond quickly. The COVID-19 pandemic is dangerous both for human life and for economic well-being in all countries of the world. Disruption of supply chains around the world creates an emergency humanitarian and social situation [13].

COVID-19 has become a real challenge for global supply chains. This event has already identified the vulnerabilities of many organizations in meeting the demand for raw materials or finished products. This is especially important for organizations whose activities are largely dependent on Chinese partners. The dominant role of China as the main global producer means that any major failure creates a threat to supply chains around the world. This is especially evident in light of the fact that more than 200 of Fortune magazine's 500 largest global companies are represented in China, in which COVID-19 was first recorded and which suffered the most. For weeks at the start of the year, as COVID-19 was exposing in China, experts were focusing on supply shocks. These were disruptions to the availability of goods supplied from China: both finished goods for sale and products used in factories in developed markets. For companies that have moved the production of consumer goods to China, it is unrealistic to completely leave the Chinese market because of the scale and quality of supplier ecosystems already created. At the same time, the crisis that has begun can be regarded as a launching step to form a trusting and transparent relationship with the most important suppliers, aimed at strengthening cooperation.

While governments are taking significant steps to combat coronavirus crisis, companies are quickly adapting to the changing needs of their employees, consumers and suppliers [14], while solving their financial and operational problems. COVID-19 pushes companies to quickly change their approach to work and exposes the stability of various systems to a serious test. Businesses have to face a whole series of new system priorities and challenges (risks of disruption to business continuity, sudden quantitative changes, real-time decision-making, labor productivity indicators, security risks [12]) and managers must act very quickly, solving urgent problems of system stability and laying the foundation at the same time the future of their organizations. A pandemic of this magnitude was a hard shock for both individual companies and entire sectors of the economy, introducing chaos into the operation of enterprises and the supply chain on the basis of the “domino effect”. Consumer activity and the structure of demand changed dramatically, and it turned out that many companies did not notice the first signs of an impending crisis. Many industries have experienced a sharp decline in demand and the need to switch to an online mode of operation.

Many years of emphasis on optimizing supplies to minimize costs, reduce inventory and speed up asset utilization has allowed companies to get rid of surpluses and increase the flexibility needed to eliminate disruptions [1], [5]. The situation with COVID-19 shows that many companies are not fully aware of the threats that may arise for their relations with partners in the supply chain as a result of large-scale international shocks. Today, the supply chain plays an important role as never before. Companies must ensure a fast, safe and uninterrupted supply of goods and services. Companies need to develop an operational response package to adequately respond to current changes and strengthen operational activities in order to increase their willingness to confront future risks in the supply chain. Due to the rapid spread of the virus and the announcement of quarantine around the world, the supply chain has already suffered serious disruptions. The supply chain plays a decisive role in organizing the fast, safe and uninterrupted delivery of goods and services. It is important for company managers to make decisions quickly and immediately implement measures to maintain business continuity to meet the needs of their customers, as well as protect and support their employees. In response to COVID-19, the immediate focus for most companies needs to be on improving visibility to supply chain risk - in your own facilities, in your direct suppliers, and beyond. If you don’t have visibility into the potential supply chain problems across your end-to-end supply chain then you cannot adequately prevent or manage them.

This is not a typical crisis event. Its scale overshadows everything that most managers could imagine. The pace of the deterioration of the situation requires the company to conduct continuous end-to-end evaluations, clear actions for optimization and monitoring [15]. Companies must respond quickly and confidently to formulate and implement a short-term tactical plan that will reduce risks to human health and protect the functioning mechanism of global supply chains.

Risk reduction in supply chains can be achieved in the following ways:

• Procurement of equipment, consumables for which a shortage is expected.

• Control restrictions on the supply chain, risks of losing key suppliers [6].

• Change routes.

• Assess the impact of failures on critical business functions.

• Formation of strategies for an alternative implementation of business functions [2].

• Planning operational impact scenarios.

• Outline the boundaries of the supply chain.

• Consider and use alternative sources of supply

• Update inventory policies and planning options [10].

• Increase transparency of data on incoming materials [7].

• Purposefully provide flexibility in production planning [3].

• Evaluate alternative external logistics schemes and ensure the throughput of the respective chains.

• Prepare for a scenario to normalize the situation.

• Model various global scenarios.

In response to COVID-19, the immediate focus for most companies needs to be on improving visibility to supply chain risk - in their own facilities, in their direct suppliers, and beyond. If they don’t have visibility into the potential supply chain problems across the end-to-end supply chain then they cannot adequately prevent or manage them.

Due to the significant pressure exerted by the COVID-19 pandemic, business processes in most industries are severely disrupted. For many multinational companies, complex and key services for global business processes should be reviewed and restructured [4]. Companies must respond quickly to changes and thereby ensure continuity, as well as protection and mitigation of operational risks, to ensure the functioning of their business now and in the future. Now more than ever, companies should focus on areas that have good prospects after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. A continuous cycle of work with risks - mobilization, identification, analysis, configuration, action - will help optimize the consequences and reduce risks [8].

The COVID-19 pandemic is a hard crisis. Its impact on human resources and the functioning of the supply chain in the organization will be long-term. Therefore, in order to effectively confront challenges in the future, business must increase long-term sustainability along the entire value chain [11]. Flexible networks help adapt quickly during crisis situations, allowing production facilities to quickly respond to changes in market demand, which, in turn, is a significant competitive advantage [9]. Сompanies with flexible supply chains are growing faster due to a greater degree of mobility and the company's ability to meet changing customer needs. The coronavirus story will undoubtedly replenish the baggage of knowledge on how to respond to major disruptions in the supply chain. Even at the current stage of the crisis, we can learn important future emergency management lessons. It is not easy to foresee international crises of such magnitude as an outbreak of coronavirus. However, firms can mitigate the impact of such emergencies by increasing the level of preparedness for failures in their supply chain. It is necessary to act before special circumstances arise in order to adapt an existing plan to them and use it instead of starting from scratch every time a company is affected by a new crisis.

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Материал размещен кафедрой «Логистика и маркетинг в АПК» Красноярского ГАУ
Источник: Материалы XVI Международной научно-практической конференции «Логистика – Евразийский мост» ЛЕМ - 2021